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icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16

Polymarket

$107,478 Vol.

Polymarket

$107,478 Vol.

Sam Liccardo (D)

$53,037 Vol.

96%

Peter Soulé (R)

$54,441 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo secured over 75 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 16th congressional district, advancing comfortably against Republican Peter Soule and other challengers in a contest reflecting the seat's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent performance in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the November general election as solidly or safely Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan composition in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties and the absence of notable Republican momentum or district-specific shifts since the primary. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or significant national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts show limited precedent for such reversals.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$107,478
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo secured over 75 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 16th congressional district, advancing comfortably against Republican Peter Soule and other challengers in a contest reflecting the seat's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent performance in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the November general election as solidly or safely Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan composition in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties and the absence of notable Republican momentum or district-specific shifts since the primary. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or significant national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts show limited precedent for such reversals.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$107,478
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre CA-15 ?

Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre CA-15 ?

96%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre CA-17 ?

Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre CA-17 ?

97%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain gagnera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour la circonscription PA-16 ?

Le Parti républicain gagnera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour la circonscription PA-16 ?

91%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Sam Liccardo (D) » à 96%, suivi de « Peter Soulé (R) » à 2%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 96¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16 » a généré $107.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16 » est « Sam Liccardo (D) » à 96%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Peter Soulé (R) » à 2%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-16 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.