Jacqui Irwin's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where she secured over 41 percent as the leading Democrat against a fragmented field, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the open CA-26 seat. The district's consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles, combined with high Democratic registration and turnout patterns in Ventura County, underpins the 94.5 percent consensus probability. Samuel Gallucci's advancement as the top Republican at roughly 21 percent reflects limited GOP primary strength. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national Republican surge in the fall campaign, unexpected fundraising shortfalls for Irwin, or late developments affecting voter mobilization in this battleground-leaning suburban area ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26
$32,154 Vol.
$32,154 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$32,154 Vol.
$32,154 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$16,426 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$15,728 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where she secured over 41 percent as the leading Democrat against a fragmented field, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the open CA-26 seat. The district's consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles, combined with high Democratic registration and turnout patterns in Ventura County, underpins the 94.5 percent consensus probability. Samuel Gallucci's advancement as the top Republican at roughly 21 percent reflects limited GOP primary strength. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national Republican surge in the fall campaign, unexpected fundraising shortfalls for Irwin, or late developments affecting voter mobilization in this battleground-leaning suburban area ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$32,154Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where she secured over 41 percent as the leading Democrat against a fragmented field, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the open CA-26 seat. The district's consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles, combined with high Democratic registration and turnout patterns in Ventura County, underpins the 94.5 percent consensus probability. Samuel Gallucci's advancement as the top Republican at roughly 21 percent reflects limited GOP primary strength. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national Republican surge in the fall campaign, unexpected fundraising shortfalls for Irwin, or late developments affecting voter mobilization in this battleground-leaning suburban area ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,154Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jacqui Irwin's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where she secured over 41 percent as the leading Democrat against a fragmented field, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the open CA-26 seat. The district's consistent Democratic lean in recent cycles, combined with high Democratic registration and turnout patterns in Ventura County, underpins the 94.5 percent consensus probability. Samuel Gallucci's advancement as the top Republican at roughly 21 percent reflects limited GOP primary strength. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national Republican surge in the fall campaign, unexpected fundraising shortfalls for Irwin, or late developments affecting voter mobilization in this battleground-leaning suburban area ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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