Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 11°C high temperature at 51% implied probability for Amsterdam on May 15, reflecting the latest KNMI, ECMWF, and GFS model consensus forecasting persistent overcast skies and cool northerly airflow from the North Sea, capping daytime highs around 11°C amid RealFeel values near 8°C. Recent observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol—yesterday's 13°C maximum under similar cloudy conditions and May 13's subdued readings—reinforce this positioning, diverging from May climatological averages of 16°C due to a stalled low-pressure system suppressing solar heating. Model ensembles show a 2°C spread, supporting 10°C at 32% and 12°C at 12%, with uncertainty from potential clearing; overnight forecast updates from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute could refine trader sentiment ahead of official Schiphol measurements resolving the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 15?
11°C 48%
10°C 29%
9°C 11.9%
12°C 12%
$12,067 Vol.
$12,067 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
12%
10°C
29%
11°C
48%
12°C
12%
13°C
3%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 48%
10°C 29%
9°C 11.9%
12°C 12%
$12,067 Vol.
$12,067 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
12%
10°C
29%
11°C
48%
12°C
12%
13°C
3%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 11°C high temperature at 51% implied probability for Amsterdam on May 15, reflecting the latest KNMI, ECMWF, and GFS model consensus forecasting persistent overcast skies and cool northerly airflow from the North Sea, capping daytime highs around 11°C amid RealFeel values near 8°C. Recent observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol—yesterday's 13°C maximum under similar cloudy conditions and May 13's subdued readings—reinforce this positioning, diverging from May climatological averages of 16°C due to a stalled low-pressure system suppressing solar heating. Model ensembles show a 2°C spread, supporting 10°C at 32% and 12°C at 12%, with uncertainty from potential clearing; overnight forecast updates from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute could refine trader sentiment ahead of official Schiphol measurements resolving the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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