Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models indicate a daytime maximum near 19°C for Munich on May 18, driven by southwesterly flow bringing mild Atlantic air under variable cloud cover and a chance of light showers. This places the most probable outcome squarely in the 18–20°C range, consistent with mid-May climatological normals of 17–19°C recorded by the Deutscher Wetterdienst. Model spread in afternoon boundary-layer heating and precipitation timing creates the tight clustering between 19°C and 20°C implied probabilities, while stronger insolation or clearer skies could push readings to 21°C. Official resolution will use the highest hourly 2-meter temperature from the Munich station, with the next major model update expected overnight on May 17.