Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Deutscher Wetterdienst indicate a modest ridge of high pressure over southern Germany on May 17, supporting a daytime maximum near 16°C at Munich Airport. This places the 15–17°C outcomes in the lead, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 16–18°C while reflecting a brief cool-air advection from the northwest that has held recent daily highs 1–3°C below average. Model consensus shows limited diurnal warming due to lingering low-level stratus and light northwest winds, with only isolated clearing expected by afternoon; any late-day break in cloud cover could push readings to 17°C, but sustained northerly flow makes 18°C or higher unlikely. Updated high-resolution model output and official DWD observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities before market resolution.