The market assigns the highest implied probability to an 86–87°F high because the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF place peak afternoon temperatures in that narrow band under a warm southerly flow and mostly sunny skies over New York City. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of maximum heating keep the 88–89°F outcome a close second at 26.5 percent, while probabilities drop sharply below 84°F given the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal passage in current forecasts. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and official NWS updates for any shifts that could alter these near-term odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à New York le 17 mai ?
86-87 °F 37%
88-89 °F 27%
84-85°F 19%
90-91°F 15.2%
$35,604 Vol.
$35,604 Vol.
79°F ou moins
<1%
80-81 °F
<1%
82-83 °F
5%
84-85°F
19%
86-87 °F
37%
88-89 °F
27%
90-91°F
15%
92-93 °F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F ou plus
<1%
86-87 °F 37%
88-89 °F 27%
84-85°F 19%
90-91°F 15.2%
$35,604 Vol.
$35,604 Vol.
79°F ou moins
<1%
80-81 °F
<1%
82-83 °F
5%
84-85°F
19%
86-87 °F
37%
88-89 °F
27%
90-91°F
15%
92-93 °F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe market assigns the highest implied probability to an 86–87°F high because the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF place peak afternoon temperatures in that narrow band under a warm southerly flow and mostly sunny skies over New York City. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of maximum heating keep the 88–89°F outcome a close second at 26.5 percent, while probabilities drop sharply below 84°F given the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal passage in current forecasts. Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and official NWS updates for any shifts that could alter these near-term odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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