Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and associated naval restrictions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing the primary driver behind the 63.5% market-implied probability for the 20-39 ship range in the week of May 11. Shipping data from early May show daily volumes stuck in single digits amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet operations, and over 1,500 stranded tankers, with only nine transits recorded on May 11 itself. This represents roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict daily averages near 60 vessels, reflecting sustained risk aversion that constrains energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders continue to monitor diplomatic signals and potential de-escalation ahead of any resolution milestones that could lift throughput.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 61%
40-59 30%
60-79 4.3%
<20 3.6%
$79,826 Vol.
$79,826 Vol.
17 mai 2026
<20
4%
20-39
61%
40-59
30%
60-79
4%
80+
2%
20-39 61%
40-59 30%
60-79 4.3%
<20 3.6%
$79,826 Vol.
$79,826 Vol.
17 mai 2026
<20
$28,269 Vol.
4%
20-39
$13,416 Vol.
61%
40-59
$14,564 Vol.
30%
60-79
$12,064 Vol.
4%
80+
$11,513 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and associated naval restrictions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing the primary driver behind the 63.5% market-implied probability for the 20-39 ship range in the week of May 11. Shipping data from early May show daily volumes stuck in single digits amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet operations, and over 1,500 stranded tankers, with only nine transits recorded on May 11 itself. This represents roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict daily averages near 60 vessels, reflecting sustained risk aversion that constrains energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders continue to monitor diplomatic signals and potential de-escalation ahead of any resolution milestones that could lift throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$79,826Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and associated naval restrictions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing the primary driver behind the 63.5% market-implied probability for the 20-39 ship range in the week of May 11. Shipping data from early May show daily volumes stuck in single digits amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet operations, and over 1,500 stranded tankers, with only nine transits recorded on May 11 itself. This represents roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict daily averages near 60 vessels, reflecting sustained risk aversion that constrains energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders continue to monitor diplomatic signals and potential de-escalation ahead of any resolution milestones that could lift throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$79,826Date de fin
17 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and associated naval restrictions have sharply curtailed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing the primary driver behind the 63.5% market-implied probability for the 20-39 ship range in the week of May 11. Shipping data from early May show daily volumes stuck in single digits amid vessel avoidance, dark-fleet operations, and over 1,500 stranded tankers, with only nine transits recorded on May 11 itself. This represents roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict daily averages near 60 vessels, reflecting sustained risk aversion that constrains energy trade flows and tanker movements. Traders continue to monitor diplomatic signals and potential de-escalation ahead of any resolution milestones that could lift throughput.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes