Ongoing military strikes and regional escalation since late February 2026 have driven Iran's sustained airspace restrictions, with total commercial transit banned under emergency NOTAMs amid concerns over further U.S. and Israeli actions. Airlines continue rerouting flights, and limited eastern corridor reopenings in April have not restored normal operations. Trader consensus around a June 30 resolution reflects uncertainty over whether diplomatic de-escalation or new incidents will end the broad suspension before that date, consistent with historical patterns during heightened Persian Gulf tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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