Israeli officials have explicitly ruled out a large-scale ground operation inside Iran, with the foreign minister stating on April 29 that no such invasion is planned despite the broader U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched in late February 2026. Early March reports from outlets citing Iranian sources described limited Mossad and special forces activity at nuclear sites, yet these remain unconfirmed and have not led to sustained ground presence. The Israel Defense Forces have instead prioritized precision strikes on missile production facilities, air defenses, and economic infrastructure while shifting resources toward Lebanon operations. Any future confirmation of Israeli troops on Iranian soil would likely hinge on escalation in nuclear-related targets or direct regime threats, with traders monitoring official statements from Jerusalem and Tehran for resolution triggers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpération terrestre israélienne en Iran confirmée par… ?
$1,212,926 Vol.
31 mai
8%
$1,212,926 Vol.
31 mai
8%
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli officials have explicitly ruled out a large-scale ground operation inside Iran, with the foreign minister stating on April 29 that no such invasion is planned despite the broader U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched in late February 2026. Early March reports from outlets citing Iranian sources described limited Mossad and special forces activity at nuclear sites, yet these remain unconfirmed and have not led to sustained ground presence. The Israel Defense Forces have instead prioritized precision strikes on missile production facilities, air defenses, and economic infrastructure while shifting resources toward Lebanon operations. Any future confirmation of Israeli troops on Iranian soil would likely hinge on escalation in nuclear-related targets or direct regime threats, with traders monitoring official statements from Jerusalem and Tehran for resolution triggers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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