Recent U.S.-brokered talks in Washington produced a 45-day extension of the April 16, 2026 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, pushing the truce through late June and scheduling follow-up political discussions for June 2–3 plus a security-track meeting at the Pentagon on May 29. Israel maintains a self-declared buffer zone inside southern Lebanon and has conducted repeated airstrikes and ground operations, linking any full withdrawal to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and border security guarantees. Lebanese officials continue pressing for complete Israeli pullback as a core condition, while traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by June 30 because no binding agreement has yet addressed disarmament, reconstruction, or permanent border demarcation.