Diplomatic negotiations between Israel, Iran, and the United States remain centered on extending the April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent peace framework, with key sticking points including limits on Iranian uranium enrichment, ballistic missile restrictions, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent U.S. proposals and Iranian counteroffers, including a 14-point plan mediated by Pakistan, have produced limited progress, though President Trump described Tehran's latest response as unacceptable, placing the truce on fragile footing. Israeli leaders have emphasized the need for verifiable curbs on Iran's nuclear and proxy capabilities without sunset clauses, while upcoming U.S.-brokered talks and the extended Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension through June 2026 could influence momentum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether these diplomatic tracks can overcome deep mutual distrust and regional security demands before any resolution deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$936,702 Vol.
31 mai 2026
May 31
3%
30 juin
13%
$936,702 Vol.
May 31
$281,565 Vol.
3%
30 juin
$340,522 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic negotiations between Israel, Iran, and the United States remain centered on extending the April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent peace framework, with key sticking points including limits on Iranian uranium enrichment, ballistic missile restrictions, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent U.S. proposals and Iranian counteroffers, including a 14-point plan mediated by Pakistan, have produced limited progress, though President Trump described Tehran's latest response as unacceptable, placing the truce on fragile footing. Israeli leaders have emphasized the need for verifiable curbs on Iran's nuclear and proxy capabilities without sunset clauses, while upcoming U.S.-brokered talks and the extended Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension through June 2026 could influence momentum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether these diplomatic tracks can overcome deep mutual distrust and regional security demands before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volume
$936,702Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic negotiations between Israel, Iran, and the United States remain centered on extending the April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent peace framework, with key sticking points including limits on Iranian uranium enrichment, ballistic missile restrictions, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent U.S. proposals and Iranian counteroffers, including a 14-point plan mediated by Pakistan, have produced limited progress, though President Trump described Tehran's latest response as unacceptable, placing the truce on fragile footing. Israeli leaders have emphasized the need for verifiable curbs on Iran's nuclear and proxy capabilities without sunset clauses, while upcoming U.S.-brokered talks and the extended Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension through June 2026 could influence momentum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether these diplomatic tracks can overcome deep mutual distrust and regional security demands before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$936,702Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic negotiations between Israel, Iran, and the United States remain centered on extending the April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent peace framework, with key sticking points including limits on Iranian uranium enrichment, ballistic missile restrictions, sanctions relief, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent U.S. proposals and Iranian counteroffers, including a 14-point plan mediated by Pakistan, have produced limited progress, though President Trump described Tehran's latest response as unacceptable, placing the truce on fragile footing. Israeli leaders have emphasized the need for verifiable curbs on Iran's nuclear and proxy capabilities without sunset clauses, while upcoming U.S.-brokered talks and the extended Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension through June 2026 could influence momentum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether these diplomatic tracks can overcome deep mutual distrust and regional security demands before any resolution deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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