Israeli military operations remain concentrated in southern Lebanon, where forces have consolidated an expanded security zone up to and beyond the Litani River while targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including the recent capture of the Ali al-Taher ridge and clearance of associated tunnels. A U.S.-brokered truce framework envisions phased Israeli withdrawals tied to Lebanese army deployments and Hezbollah disarmament in designated pilot zones, though violations and responsive strikes continue. Past threats of strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs prompted U.S. interventions that limited escalation to airstrikes rather than ground advances, and no verified Israeli ground personnel have entered the Beirut municipality since the conflict’s March 2026 escalation. Traders therefore assign low implied probability to near-term ground entry into the capital.