Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, placing him second behind Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent and triggering a June 21 runoff. Cepeda had maintained a consistent polling lead through early 2026 on promises of continuity with “total peace” negotiations, rural development, and progressive reforms, yet de la Espriella’s rapid late surge—driven by hardline security messaging, social media reach, and evangelical support—narrowed the gap and prevented an outright majority. High turnout and polarization concentrated votes between the two frontrunners, sidelining centrist options. Official certification and Cepeda’s acceptance of the results have locked in the 40-45 percent band as the market consensus. A narrow runoff margin remains possible if centrist voters from eliminated candidates shift toward Cepeda, though late developments such as renewed violence or major endorsements could still alter final positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
40-45% 98.8%
45-50% 2.8%
35-40% 1.3%
50-55% 1.1%
$31,803 Vol.
$31,803 Vol.
31 mai 2026
<30%
1%
30-35%
1%
35-40%
1%
40-45%
99%
45-50%
3%
50-55%
1%
55%+
<1%
40-45% 98.8%
45-50% 2.8%
35-40% 1.3%
50-55% 1.1%
$31,803 Vol.
$31,803 Vol.
31 mai 2026
<30%
$5,437 Vol.
1%
30-35%
$2,208 Vol.
1%
35-40%
$3,804 Vol.
1%
40-45%
$9,241 Vol.
99%
45-50%
$3,491 Vol.
3%
50-55%
$3,190 Vol.
1%
55%+
$4,432 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, placing him second behind Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent and triggering a June 21 runoff. Cepeda had maintained a consistent polling lead through early 2026 on promises of continuity with “total peace” negotiations, rural development, and progressive reforms, yet de la Espriella’s rapid late surge—driven by hardline security messaging, social media reach, and evangelical support—narrowed the gap and prevented an outright majority. High turnout and polarization concentrated votes between the two frontrunners, sidelining centrist options. Official certification and Cepeda’s acceptance of the results have locked in the 40-45 percent band as the market consensus. A narrow runoff margin remains possible if centrist voters from eliminated candidates shift toward Cepeda, though late developments such as renewed violence or major endorsements could still alter final positioning.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
Volume
$31,803Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, placing him second behind Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent and triggering a June 21 runoff. Cepeda had maintained a consistent polling lead through early 2026 on promises of continuity with “total peace” negotiations, rural development, and progressive reforms, yet de la Espriella’s rapid late surge—driven by hardline security messaging, social media reach, and evangelical support—narrowed the gap and prevented an outright majority. High turnout and polarization concentrated votes between the two frontrunners, sidelining centrist options. Official certification and Cepeda’s acceptance of the results have locked in the 40-45 percent band as the market consensus. A narrow runoff margin remains possible if centrist voters from eliminated candidates shift toward Cepeda, though late developments such as renewed violence or major endorsements could still alter final positioning.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$31,803Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, placing him second behind Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent and triggering a June 21 runoff. Cepeda had maintained a consistent polling lead through early 2026 on promises of continuity with “total peace” negotiations, rural development, and progressive reforms, yet de la Espriella’s rapid late surge—driven by hardline security messaging, social media reach, and evangelical support—narrowed the gap and prevented an outright majority. High turnout and polarization concentrated votes between the two frontrunners, sidelining centrist options. Official certification and Cepeda’s acceptance of the results have locked in the 40-45 percent band as the market consensus. A narrow runoff margin remains possible if centrist voters from eliminated candidates shift toward Cepeda, though late developments such as renewed violence or major endorsements could still alter final positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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