The competitive character of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat carried by the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins the 66 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who prevailed by roughly two points in 2024, faces Democrat Cait Conley, an Army veteran and national-security veteran who secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote. Conley’s post-primary polling leads and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support have reinforced trader positioning, while Lawler’s substantial cash reserves and established name recognition sustain the Republican share near 29 percent. The November 3 general-election outcome remains sensitive to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-17
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-17
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
66%
Parti républicain
29%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$4,001 Vol.
66%
Parti républicain
$5,147 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The competitive character of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat carried by the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins the 66 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who prevailed by roughly two points in 2024, faces Democrat Cait Conley, an Army veteran and national-security veteran who secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote. Conley’s post-primary polling leads and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support have reinforced trader positioning, while Lawler’s substantial cash reserves and established name recognition sustain the Republican share near 29 percent. The November 3 general-election outcome remains sensitive to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$9,148Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The competitive character of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat carried by the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins the 66 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who prevailed by roughly two points in 2024, faces Democrat Cait Conley, an Army veteran and national-security veteran who secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote. Conley’s post-primary polling leads and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support have reinforced trader positioning, while Lawler’s substantial cash reserves and established name recognition sustain the Republican share near 29 percent. The November 3 general-election outcome remains sensitive to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,148Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The competitive character of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat carried by the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, underpins the 66 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who prevailed by roughly two points in 2024, faces Democrat Cait Conley, an Army veteran and national-security veteran who secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote. Conley’s post-primary polling leads and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support have reinforced trader positioning, while Lawler’s substantial cash reserves and established name recognition sustain the Republican share near 29 percent. The November 3 general-election outcome remains sensitive to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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