The stringent constitutional requirements for repealing the Twenty-second Amendment explain the current trader consensus favoring no action in 2026. Any repeal would need two-thirds support in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from thirty-eight state legislatures, a threshold that has succeeded only once in U.S. history and faces significant institutional and partisan barriers. Recent developments include a 2025 House resolution to allow three presidential terms that stalled without committee advancement, alongside President Trump’s public remarks acknowledging the existing limits. No comparable legislation has advanced in the 119th Congress, and the compressed timeline leaves little room for the necessary coalition-building or state-level processes. While late-session maneuvers or shifting political dynamics could theoretically alter the trajectory, the procedural and numerical obstacles continue to anchor market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The stringent constitutional requirements for repealing the Twenty-second Amendment explain the current trader consensus favoring no action in 2026. Any repeal would need two-thirds support in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from thirty-eight state legislatures, a threshold that has succeeded only once in U.S. history and faces significant institutional and partisan barriers. Recent developments include a 2025 House resolution to allow three presidential terms that stalled without committee advancement, alongside President Trump’s public remarks acknowledging the existing limits. No comparable legislation has advanced in the 119th Congress, and the compressed timeline leaves little room for the necessary coalition-building or state-level processes. While late-session maneuvers or shifting political dynamics could theoretically alter the trajectory, the procedural and numerical obstacles continue to anchor market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Marché ouvert : Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$9,532Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The stringent constitutional requirements for repealing the Twenty-second Amendment explain the current trader consensus favoring no action in 2026. Any repeal would need two-thirds support in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from thirty-eight state legislatures, a threshold that has succeeded only once in U.S. history and faces significant institutional and partisan barriers. Recent developments include a 2025 House resolution to allow three presidential terms that stalled without committee advancement, alongside President Trump’s public remarks acknowledging the existing limits. No comparable legislation has advanced in the 119th Congress, and the compressed timeline leaves little room for the necessary coalition-building or state-level processes. While late-session maneuvers or shifting political dynamics could theoretically alter the trajectory, the procedural and numerical obstacles continue to anchor market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$9,532Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stringent constitutional requirements for repealing the Twenty-second Amendment explain the current trader consensus favoring no action in 2026. Any repeal would need two-thirds support in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from thirty-eight state legislatures, a threshold that has succeeded only once in U.S. history and faces significant institutional and partisan barriers. Recent developments include a 2025 House resolution to allow three presidential terms that stalled without committee advancement, alongside President Trump’s public remarks acknowledging the existing limits. No comparable legislation has advanced in the 119th Congress, and the compressed timeline leaves little room for the necessary coalition-building or state-level processes. While late-session maneuvers or shifting political dynamics could theoretically alter the trajectory, the procedural and numerical obstacles continue to anchor market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes