Trader sentiment for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026 currently favors "No" at a 56.5% implied probability, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems showing no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision courses. Mid-2026 observations confirm zero qualifying bolides to date, with the largest reported fireball (March over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt amid a modest Q1 uptick in detections attributed to improved networks rather than elevated risk. Historical global rates suggest such events occur roughly 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small asteroids, leaving residual uncertainty from fast-movers that could evade current surveys. Ongoing infrasound and satellite tracking through year-end will refine these odds as fresh orbital data emerge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 5kt उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
$300,653 वॉल्यूम
$300,653 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$300,653 वॉल्यूम
$300,653 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader sentiment for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026 currently favors "No" at a 56.5% implied probability, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems showing no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision courses. Mid-2026 observations confirm zero qualifying bolides to date, with the largest reported fireball (March over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt amid a modest Q1 uptick in detections attributed to improved networks rather than elevated risk. Historical global rates suggest such events occur roughly 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small asteroids, leaving residual uncertainty from fast-movers that could evade current surveys. Ongoing infrasound and satellite tracking through year-end will refine these odds as fresh orbital data emerge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$300,653समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader sentiment for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026 currently favors "No" at a 56.5% implied probability, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems showing no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision courses. Mid-2026 observations confirm zero qualifying bolides to date, with the largest reported fireball (March over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt amid a modest Q1 uptick in detections attributed to improved networks rather than elevated risk. Historical global rates suggest such events occur roughly 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small asteroids, leaving residual uncertainty from fast-movers that could evade current surveys. Ongoing infrasound and satellite tracking through year-end will refine these odds as fresh orbital data emerge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$300,653समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026 currently favors "No" at a 56.5% implied probability, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring systems showing no qualifying near-Earth objects on collision courses. Mid-2026 observations confirm zero qualifying bolides to date, with the largest reported fireball (March over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt amid a modest Q1 uptick in detections attributed to improved networks rather than elevated risk. Historical global rates suggest such events occur roughly 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small asteroids, leaving residual uncertainty from fast-movers that could evade current surveys. Ongoing infrasound and satellite tracking through year-end will refine these odds as fresh orbital data emerge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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