NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no catalogued asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of generating a 5 kt airburst through December 2026, anchoring the 73.5 % market-implied probability for “No.” Small bolides releasing a few kilotons occur every several years on average, yet current detection networks and orbital surveys have identified none large enough or on track for an Earth impact this year. Ongoing monitoring shows all known near-Earth objects passing at safe distances, with no recent discoveries altering the risk profile. Traders therefore price in residual uncertainty only from undetected sub-10 m objects whose orbits remain poorly constrained, keeping the “Yes” side below one-in-four odds.