Current forecasts from major meteorological models project a daily high of 28°C in Mexico City on May 17, aligning closely with the long-term May average of 27°C for the high-altitude basin. This supports the market’s overwhelming 96.6% implied probability for 26°C or higher, driven by typical late-spring warming patterns under clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. Official climatological data show highs rarely dip below 25°C this time of year without significant moisture influx or stronger northerly flow. The primary uncertainty remains any last-minute increase in convective clouds or isolated showers, which could cap the peak a degree or two lower, though recent model runs show only modest rain chances and minimal risk of such suppression.