Latest India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow project a maximum temperature of 39–41°C on May 18, driven by westerly winds, a weak western disturbance adding moisture, and partial cloud cover that curbs daytime solar heating. These conditions align with the market’s strong 75.5% implied probability for 42°C or below, while historical mid-May averages of 40–43°C explain the smaller shares priced for 43°C and higher. Recent model consensus shows no rapid intensification expected, though final resolution hinges on the official station reading at the end of the day. Traders are weighting the latest IMD guidance heavily, given its role in defining heat-wave thresholds for the Indo-Gangetic plain.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 18?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 18?
42°C or below 75%
43°C 13%
44°C 5.1%
45°C 2.1%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
42°C or below
75%
43°C
13%
44°C
5%
45°C
2%
46°C
1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C
<1%
52°C or higher
<1%
42°C or below 75%
43°C 13%
44°C 5.1%
45°C 2.1%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
42°C or below
$285 Vol.
75%
43°C
$294 Vol.
13%
44°C
$99 Vol.
5%
45°C
$200 Vol.
2%
46°C
$236 Vol.
1%
47°C
$430 Vol.
<1%
48°C
$379 Vol.
<1%
49°C
$562 Vol.
<1%
50°C
$963 Vol.
<1%
51°C
$988 Vol.
<1%
52°C or higher
$573 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow project a maximum temperature of 39–41°C on May 18, driven by westerly winds, a weak western disturbance adding moisture, and partial cloud cover that curbs daytime solar heating. These conditions align with the market’s strong 75.5% implied probability for 42°C or below, while historical mid-May averages of 40–43°C explain the smaller shares priced for 43°C and higher. Recent model consensus shows no rapid intensification expected, though final resolution hinges on the official station reading at the end of the day. Traders are weighting the latest IMD guidance heavily, given its role in defining heat-wave thresholds for the Indo-Gangetic plain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,004Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow project a maximum temperature of 39–41°C on May 18, driven by westerly winds, a weak western disturbance adding moisture, and partial cloud cover that curbs daytime solar heating. These conditions align with the market’s strong 75.5% implied probability for 42°C or below, while historical mid-May averages of 40–43°C explain the smaller shares priced for 43°C and higher. Recent model consensus shows no rapid intensification expected, though final resolution hinges on the official station reading at the end of the day. Traders are weighting the latest IMD guidance heavily, given its role in defining heat-wave thresholds for the Indo-Gangetic plain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,004Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKLatest India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow project a maximum temperature of 39–41°C on May 18, driven by westerly winds, a weak western disturbance adding moisture, and partial cloud cover that curbs daytime solar heating. These conditions align with the market’s strong 75.5% implied probability for 42°C or below, while historical mid-May averages of 40–43°C explain the smaller shares priced for 43°C and higher. Recent model consensus shows no rapid intensification expected, though final resolution hinges on the official station reading at the end of the day. Traders are weighting the latest IMD guidance heavily, given its role in defining heat-wave thresholds for the Indo-Gangetic plain.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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