Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models converge on a daily maximum of 18–19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market's leading 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher. A transient ridge of high pressure is steering milder Atlantic air northward across central Poland, with limited cloud cover expected to allow afternoon solar heating to push readings near or above that threshold. Historical May averages for the region sit near 19°C, providing climatological context, yet minor model spread around timing of frontal passage introduces realistic downside risk into the 18°C bin at 21%. Updated runs ahead of the May 17–18 period will refine peak wind and humidity details that determine exact resolution at Warsaw Chopin Airport.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
19°C or higher 65%
18°C 22%
17°C 10%
16°C 2.0%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
10%
18°C
22%
19°C or higher
65%
19°C or higher 65%
18°C 22%
17°C 10%
16°C 2.0%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
$110 Vol.
1%
10°C
$100 Vol.
1%
11°C
$110 Vol.
1%
12°C
$110 Vol.
1%
13°C
$70 Vol.
1%
14°C
$25 Vol.
2%
15°C
$25 Vol.
2%
16°C
$2 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C or higher
$35 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models converge on a daily maximum of 18–19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market's leading 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher. A transient ridge of high pressure is steering milder Atlantic air northward across central Poland, with limited cloud cover expected to allow afternoon solar heating to push readings near or above that threshold. Historical May averages for the region sit near 19°C, providing climatological context, yet minor model spread around timing of frontal passage introduces realistic downside risk into the 18°C bin at 21%. Updated runs ahead of the May 17–18 period will refine peak wind and humidity details that determine exact resolution at Warsaw Chopin Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$540Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models converge on a daily maximum of 18–19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market's leading 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher. A transient ridge of high pressure is steering milder Atlantic air northward across central Poland, with limited cloud cover expected to allow afternoon solar heating to push readings near or above that threshold. Historical May averages for the region sit near 19°C, providing climatological context, yet minor model spread around timing of frontal passage introduces realistic downside risk into the 18°C bin at 21%. Updated runs ahead of the May 17–18 period will refine peak wind and humidity details that determine exact resolution at Warsaw Chopin Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$540Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWARecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models converge on a daily maximum of 18–19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market's leading 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher. A transient ridge of high pressure is steering milder Atlantic air northward across central Poland, with limited cloud cover expected to allow afternoon solar heating to push readings near or above that threshold. Historical May averages for the region sit near 19°C, providing climatological context, yet minor model spread around timing of frontal passage introduces realistic downside risk into the 18°C bin at 21%. Updated runs ahead of the May 17–18 period will refine peak wind and humidity details that determine exact resolution at Warsaw Chopin Airport.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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