Chile’s stable security environment under President José Antonio Kast’s administration, which began in March 2026, underpins the 99.6% “No” consensus. Kast has advanced targeted security, immigration, and law-enforcement measures—such as longer detention periods and ministry reforms—without triggering the constitutional threshold for a nationwide Estado de Sitio, which requires evidence of grave internal commotion or civil war plus congressional ratification. Localized states of constitutional exception persist in southern regions over violence or fires, yet none have escalated into a nationwide crisis in recent weeks. With only twelve days left until the June 30 resolution, the lack of an acute trigger sustains near-certain pricing. A sudden surge in coordinated unrest or major security breakdown meeting the legal bar could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiState of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
$69,528 Vol.
$69,528 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,528 Vol.
$69,528 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Chile’s stable security environment under President José Antonio Kast’s administration, which began in March 2026, underpins the 99.6% “No” consensus. Kast has advanced targeted security, immigration, and law-enforcement measures—such as longer detention periods and ministry reforms—without triggering the constitutional threshold for a nationwide Estado de Sitio, which requires evidence of grave internal commotion or civil war plus congressional ratification. Localized states of constitutional exception persist in southern regions over violence or fires, yet none have escalated into a nationwide crisis in recent weeks. With only twelve days left until the June 30 resolution, the lack of an acute trigger sustains near-certain pricing. A sudden surge in coordinated unrest or major security breakdown meeting the legal bar could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$69,528Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Chile’s stable security environment under President José Antonio Kast’s administration, which began in March 2026, underpins the 99.6% “No” consensus. Kast has advanced targeted security, immigration, and law-enforcement measures—such as longer detention periods and ministry reforms—without triggering the constitutional threshold for a nationwide Estado de Sitio, which requires evidence of grave internal commotion or civil war plus congressional ratification. Localized states of constitutional exception persist in southern regions over violence or fires, yet none have escalated into a nationwide crisis in recent weeks. With only twelve days left until the June 30 resolution, the lack of an acute trigger sustains near-certain pricing. A sudden surge in coordinated unrest or major security breakdown meeting the legal bar could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$69,528Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Chile’s stable security environment under President José Antonio Kast’s administration, which began in March 2026, underpins the 99.6% “No” consensus. Kast has advanced targeted security, immigration, and law-enforcement measures—such as longer detention periods and ministry reforms—without triggering the constitutional threshold for a nationwide Estado de Sitio, which requires evidence of grave internal commotion or civil war plus congressional ratification. Localized states of constitutional exception persist in southern regions over violence or fires, yet none have escalated into a nationwide crisis in recent weeks. With only twelve days left until the June 30 resolution, the lack of an acute trigger sustains near-certain pricing. A sudden surge in coordinated unrest or major security breakdown meeting the legal bar could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
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