Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
28%
800–900B
40%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
2%
$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$720 Vol.
28%
800–900B
$1,895 Vol.
40%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,762Tanggal Berakhir
May 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,762Tanggal Berakhir
May 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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