Trader consensus prices "No" at 69% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing no events above 1 kt through mid-May, with the largest—such as a 0.69 kt bolide—far below the threshold despite a Q1 surge in detections over Ohio, Houston, and Europe. This uptick stems from enhanced US Space Force sensors and Global Meteor Network coverage, not elevated hazard rates. No tracked near-Earth objects pose collision risks per the Sentry system, and historical bolide frequencies (~1-2 events >5 kt every few years for 8-12 meter asteroids) align with the market's ~31% "Yes" baseline, tempered by half the year event-free. Upcoming CNEOS updates and NEO surveys could refine odds amid inherent detection gaps for small, short-warning objects.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus prices "No" at 69% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing no events above 1 kt through mid-May, with the largest—such as a 0.69 kt bolide—far below the threshold despite a Q1 surge in detections over Ohio, Houston, and Europe. This uptick stems from enhanced US Space Force sensors and Global Meteor Network coverage, not elevated hazard rates. No tracked near-Earth objects pose collision risks per the Sentry system, and historical bolide frequencies (~1-2 events >5 kt every few years for 8-12 meter asteroids) align with the market's ~31% "Yes" baseline, tempered by half the year event-free. Upcoming CNEOS updates and NEO surveys could refine odds amid inherent detection gaps for small, short-warning objects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,045Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus prices "No" at 69% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing no events above 1 kt through mid-May, with the largest—such as a 0.69 kt bolide—far below the threshold despite a Q1 surge in detections over Ohio, Houston, and Europe. This uptick stems from enhanced US Space Force sensors and Global Meteor Network coverage, not elevated hazard rates. No tracked near-Earth objects pose collision risks per the Sentry system, and historical bolide frequencies (~1-2 events >5 kt every few years for 8-12 meter asteroids) align with the market's ~31% "Yes" baseline, tempered by half the year event-free. Upcoming CNEOS updates and NEO surveys could refine odds amid inherent detection gaps for small, short-warning objects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,045Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 69% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing no events above 1 kt through mid-May, with the largest—such as a 0.69 kt bolide—far below the threshold despite a Q1 surge in detections over Ohio, Houston, and Europe. This uptick stems from enhanced US Space Force sensors and Global Meteor Network coverage, not elevated hazard rates. No tracked near-Earth objects pose collision risks per the Sentry system, and historical bolide frequencies (~1-2 events >5 kt every few years for 8-12 meter asteroids) align with the market's ~31% "Yes" baseline, tempered by half the year event-free. Upcoming CNEOS updates and NEO surveys could refine odds amid inherent detection gaps for small, short-warning objects.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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