Recent hantavirus cases linked to the MV Hondius Antarctic cruise have driven CDC activation of its Emergency Operations Center at the lowest Level 3 readiness on May 8, 2026, after three confirmed Andes virus deaths and global passenger dispersal. This development, alongside the May 1 measles travel advisory amid rising U.S. cases and ongoing H5N1 avian influenza human infections under active surveillance, has elevated trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability of a Level 3 Travel Health Notice (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) by year-end. Official CDC assessments note low public risk but highlight epidemiological pressures from multiple pathogens. Weekly surveillance reports and case tracking through summer will clarify whether outbreak expansion meets the threshold for a formal travel notice, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in disease trajectory modeling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl CDC emette un avviso di livello 3 entro il 31 dicembre?
Il CDC emette un avviso di livello 3 entro il 31 dicembre?
Sì
$117,078 Vol.
$117,078 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$117,078 Vol.
$117,078 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent hantavirus cases linked to the MV Hondius Antarctic cruise have driven CDC activation of its Emergency Operations Center at the lowest Level 3 readiness on May 8, 2026, after three confirmed Andes virus deaths and global passenger dispersal. This development, alongside the May 1 measles travel advisory amid rising U.S. cases and ongoing H5N1 avian influenza human infections under active surveillance, has elevated trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability of a Level 3 Travel Health Notice (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) by year-end. Official CDC assessments note low public risk but highlight epidemiological pressures from multiple pathogens. Weekly surveillance reports and case tracking through summer will clarify whether outbreak expansion meets the threshold for a formal travel notice, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in disease trajectory modeling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$117,078Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent hantavirus cases linked to the MV Hondius Antarctic cruise have driven CDC activation of its Emergency Operations Center at the lowest Level 3 readiness on May 8, 2026, after three confirmed Andes virus deaths and global passenger dispersal. This development, alongside the May 1 measles travel advisory amid rising U.S. cases and ongoing H5N1 avian influenza human infections under active surveillance, has elevated trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability of a Level 3 Travel Health Notice (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) by year-end. Official CDC assessments note low public risk but highlight epidemiological pressures from multiple pathogens. Weekly surveillance reports and case tracking through summer will clarify whether outbreak expansion meets the threshold for a formal travel notice, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in disease trajectory modeling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$117,078Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hantavirus cases linked to the MV Hondius Antarctic cruise have driven CDC activation of its Emergency Operations Center at the lowest Level 3 readiness on May 8, 2026, after three confirmed Andes virus deaths and global passenger dispersal. This development, alongside the May 1 measles travel advisory amid rising U.S. cases and ongoing H5N1 avian influenza human infections under active surveillance, has elevated trader consensus to a 75.5% implied probability of a Level 3 Travel Health Notice (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) by year-end. Official CDC assessments note low public risk but highlight epidemiological pressures from multiple pathogens. Weekly surveillance reports and case tracking through summer will clarify whether outbreak expansion meets the threshold for a formal travel notice, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in disease trajectory modeling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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