Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS, converge on a daily maximum of 34–35°C in Milan for August 16, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. A broad high-pressure ridge and southerly advection of subtropical air maintain elevated temperatures, though scattered afternoon convection and light showers noted in recent guidance could cap peaks near the lower end of that range. Historical August climatology for the Po Valley shows typical highs of 28–31°C, making the current heat anomaly notable yet consistent with an ongoing warm spell. Updated model outputs and observational adjustments ahead of resolution will refine the exact threshold.