Recent meteorological model runs from European forecasting centers indicate a stable high-pressure system over the Po Valley will limit daytime heating on May 17, producing a maximum temperature most likely between 21 °C and 22 °C. Light northerly flow and scattered morning cloud cover are expected to suppress peak insolation, keeping the reading near the long-term May climatological average of 22 °C while preventing stronger warm advection from the south. Ensemble guidance shows only modest spread, with a few members hinting at brief clearing that could push the high to 23 °C; traders have priced this uncertainty into the narrow gap between the leading 21 °C and 22 °C contracts. Updated guidance late on May 16 will clarify whether residual moisture or a slight wind shift alters the outcome before resolution.