A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is the primary driver behind traders assigning a 76% implied probability to Tokyo reaching 28°C or higher on May 18, as official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that should push maximum temperatures into the upper 20s. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 28–30°C with minimal spread, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C at the reference station. Recent surface observations and the latest model updates have reinforced this warm setup, leaving little room for cooler outcomes and aligning market sentiment with the expected diurnal peak tomorrow.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 18 maggio?
28°C or higher 77%
27°C 19%
26°C 4.0%
25°C 1.0%
NUOVO
$23,823 Vol.
NUOVO
$23,823 Vol.
18 mag 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
19%
28°C or higher
77%
28°C or higher 77%
27°C 19%
26°C 4.0%
25°C 1.0%
NUOVO
$23,823 Vol.
NUOVO
$23,823 Vol.
18 mag 2026
18°C or below
$2,106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,355 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,229 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,752 Vol.
1%
26°C
$2,693 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,954 Vol.
19%
28°C or higher
$3,038 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is the primary driver behind traders assigning a 76% implied probability to Tokyo reaching 28°C or higher on May 18, as official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that should push maximum temperatures into the upper 20s. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 28–30°C with minimal spread, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C at the reference station. Recent surface observations and the latest model updates have reinforced this warm setup, leaving little room for cooler outcomes and aligning market sentiment with the expected diurnal peak tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$23,823Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is the primary driver behind traders assigning a 76% implied probability to Tokyo reaching 28°C or higher on May 18, as official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that should push maximum temperatures into the upper 20s. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 28–30°C with minimal spread, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C at the reference station. Recent surface observations and the latest model updates have reinforced this warm setup, leaving little room for cooler outcomes and aligning market sentiment with the expected diurnal peak tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,823Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTA strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is the primary driver behind traders assigning a 76% implied probability to Tokyo reaching 28°C or higher on May 18, as official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to clear skies, light southerly flow, and intense afternoon solar heating that should push maximum temperatures into the upper 20s. Ensemble model runs cluster tightly around 28–30°C with minimal spread, well above the mid-May climatological average of 23–25°C at the reference station. Recent surface observations and the latest model updates have reinforced this warm setup, leaving little room for cooler outcomes and aligning market sentiment with the expected diurnal peak tomorrow.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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