Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 maggio?
L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$629,239 Vol.
$629,239 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$629,239 Vol.
$629,239 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$629,239Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$629,239Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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