Ongoing military tensions with Iran, triggered by the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the core driver behind trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure to civilian flights that day and later imposed capacity limits and security reviews at Ben Gurion Airport, allowing only limited Israeli-carrier operations. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s plans to resume flights to Israel in June following safety assessments, have eased immediate threat perceptions and lowered implied probabilities for a major shutdown by late May. Markets continue to track official NOTAM extensions, diplomatic signals, and any escalation in regional threats that could prompt renewed restrictions before resolution deadlines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$880,865 Vol.
30 giu 2026
May 31
31%
30 giugno
49%
$880,865 Vol.
May 31
$377,600 Vol.
31%
30 giugno
$8,017 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions with Iran, triggered by the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the core driver behind trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure to civilian flights that day and later imposed capacity limits and security reviews at Ben Gurion Airport, allowing only limited Israeli-carrier operations. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s plans to resume flights to Israel in June following safety assessments, have eased immediate threat perceptions and lowered implied probabilities for a major shutdown by late May. Markets continue to track official NOTAM extensions, diplomatic signals, and any escalation in regional threats that could prompt renewed restrictions before resolution deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$880,865Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions with Iran, triggered by the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the core driver behind trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure to civilian flights that day and later imposed capacity limits and security reviews at Ben Gurion Airport, allowing only limited Israeli-carrier operations. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s plans to resume flights to Israel in June following safety assessments, have eased immediate threat perceptions and lowered implied probabilities for a major shutdown by late May. Markets continue to track official NOTAM extensions, diplomatic signals, and any escalation in regional threats that could prompt renewed restrictions before resolution deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$880,865Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions with Iran, triggered by the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the core driver behind trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities imposed a full closure to civilian flights that day and later imposed capacity limits and security reviews at Ben Gurion Airport, allowing only limited Israeli-carrier operations. Recent announcements by European carriers, including Lufthansa’s plans to resume flights to Israel in June following safety assessments, have eased immediate threat perceptions and lowered implied probabilities for a major shutdown by late May. Markets continue to track official NOTAM extensions, diplomatic signals, and any escalation in regional threats that could prompt renewed restrictions before resolution deadlines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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