The Met Office’s latest forecast drives the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for a 7°C minimum in London on May 16, projecting an early-morning low under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph that suppress radiative cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight minima hover near 8°C, while London’s urban heat island effect consistently elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations like Heathrow. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited spread around 6–8°C, confirming the narrow window for deviation. Clearer skies or stronger boundary-layer mixing could allow temperatures to dip to 6°C, but current observations and model consensus indicate minimal likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Londra il 16 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Londra il 16 maggio?
7°C 99.6%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$22,408 Vol.
$22,408 Vol.
16 mag 2026
0°C o inferiore
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C o superiore
<1%
7°C 99.6%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$22,408 Vol.
$22,408 Vol.
16 mag 2026
0°C o inferiore
$345 Vol.
<1%
1°C
$910 Vol.
<1%
2°C
$508 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$3,247 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$3,727 Vol.
1%
5°C
$874 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,285 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$2,065 Vol.
100%
8°C
$827 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
10°C o superiore
$8,048 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Met Office’s latest forecast drives the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for a 7°C minimum in London on May 16, projecting an early-morning low under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph that suppress radiative cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight minima hover near 8°C, while London’s urban heat island effect consistently elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations like Heathrow. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited spread around 6–8°C, confirming the narrow window for deviation. Clearer skies or stronger boundary-layer mixing could allow temperatures to dip to 6°C, but current observations and model consensus indicate minimal likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$22,408Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Met Office’s latest forecast drives the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for a 7°C minimum in London on May 16, projecting an early-morning low under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph that suppress radiative cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight minima hover near 8°C, while London’s urban heat island effect consistently elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations like Heathrow. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited spread around 6–8°C, confirming the narrow window for deviation. Clearer skies or stronger boundary-layer mixing could allow temperatures to dip to 6°C, but current observations and model consensus indicate minimal likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,408Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe Met Office’s latest forecast drives the overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for a 7°C minimum in London on May 16, projecting an early-morning low under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds of 5–9 mph that suppress radiative cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where typical overnight minima hover near 8°C, while London’s urban heat island effect consistently elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations like Heathrow. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows limited spread around 6–8°C, confirming the narrow window for deviation. Clearer skies or stronger boundary-layer mixing could allow temperatures to dip to 6°C, but current observations and model consensus indicate minimal likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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