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Politica·Brasile

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

icon for São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Politica·Brasile

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

Fernando Haddad 9.5%

Kim Kataguiri 5.2%

Márcio França 2.0%

Polymarket

$20,401 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

Fernando Haddad 9.5%

Kim Kataguiri 5.2%

Márcio França 2.0%

Polymarket

$20,401 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$10,702 Vol.

82%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$3,042 Vol.

10%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$1,581 Vol.

5%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$2,190 Vol.

2%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$2,885 Vol.

1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,401
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,401
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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"São Paulo Governor Election Winner" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Tarcísio de Freitas" a 82%, seguito da "Fernando Haddad" a 10%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 82¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 82% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" ha generato $20.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 27, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "São Paulo Governor Election Winner", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" è "Tarcísio de Freitas" a 82%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 82% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Fernando Haddad" a 10%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.