Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Veritá shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading first-round intentions at 40-42 percent, ahead of Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) at 29-33 percent and Laurez Moreira (PSD) near 7 percent, with her margin widening by several points in late September surveys as undecided voters declined. Campaign spending data through late September places Dorinha at the top with over R$5.6 million declared, ahead of her main rivals, ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. These trends align with trader pricing favoring Dorinha while keeping the outcome competitive given the narrow gaps in some head-to-head simulations and the potential for late shifts in voter turnout or alliances.