France, the UK, and Germany have confined their responses to the 2026 Iran conflict to diplomatic condemnations, targeted sanctions, and defensive coordination in the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding any direct offensive strikes on Iranian territory. Recent actions, including the UK’s May sanctions on Iran-linked networks and joint defense-minister discussions on navigation security, underscore a consistent emphasis on de-escalation and alliance coordination rather than independent military operations. This approach aligns with public statements from leaders rejecting participation in broader strikes while stressing proportionate defensive measures only if vital interests face imminent threats. Trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no strike by June 30 reflects these restrained postures. Potential shifts could arise from major Iranian attacks on European assets or shipping lanes that compel a rapid policy reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFrancia, Regno Unito o Germania colpiranno l'Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Francia, Regno Unito o Germania colpiranno l'Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$1,374,512 Vol.
$1,374,512 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,374,512 Vol.
$1,374,512 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, the UK, and Germany have confined their responses to the 2026 Iran conflict to diplomatic condemnations, targeted sanctions, and defensive coordination in the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding any direct offensive strikes on Iranian territory. Recent actions, including the UK’s May sanctions on Iran-linked networks and joint defense-minister discussions on navigation security, underscore a consistent emphasis on de-escalation and alliance coordination rather than independent military operations. This approach aligns with public statements from leaders rejecting participation in broader strikes while stressing proportionate defensive measures only if vital interests face imminent threats. Trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no strike by June 30 reflects these restrained postures. Potential shifts could arise from major Iranian attacks on European assets or shipping lanes that compel a rapid policy reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Volume
$1,374,512Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.France, the UK, and Germany have confined their responses to the 2026 Iran conflict to diplomatic condemnations, targeted sanctions, and defensive coordination in the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding any direct offensive strikes on Iranian territory. Recent actions, including the UK’s May sanctions on Iran-linked networks and joint defense-minister discussions on navigation security, underscore a consistent emphasis on de-escalation and alliance coordination rather than independent military operations. This approach aligns with public statements from leaders rejecting participation in broader strikes while stressing proportionate defensive measures only if vital interests face imminent threats. Trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no strike by June 30 reflects these restrained postures. Potential shifts could arise from major Iranian attacks on European assets or shipping lanes that compel a rapid policy reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,374,512Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France, the UK, and Germany have confined their responses to the 2026 Iran conflict to diplomatic condemnations, targeted sanctions, and defensive coordination in the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding any direct offensive strikes on Iranian territory. Recent actions, including the UK’s May sanctions on Iran-linked networks and joint defense-minister discussions on navigation security, underscore a consistent emphasis on de-escalation and alliance coordination rather than independent military operations. This approach aligns with public statements from leaders rejecting participation in broader strikes while stressing proportionate defensive measures only if vital interests face imminent threats. Trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no strike by June 30 reflects these restrained postures. Potential shifts could arise from major Iranian attacks on European assets or shipping lanes that compel a rapid policy reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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