North Korea's pattern of ballistic missile tests, including a launch into the East Sea on September 20, 2026, and joint artillery-missile drills earlier that month, alongside reported border incursions and fortification work in August, has sustained tensions without crossing into preparations for a full-scale conventional invasion of South Korea. Pyongyang's constitutional changes designating the South as a hostile state and continued nuclear expansion reflect entrenched hostility, yet the U.S.-South Korea alliance, extended deterrence commitments, and North Korea's economic dependencies on China and Russia act as strong deterrents. Trader consensus on a low probability of invasion before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the absence of imminent mobilization signals. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt diplomatic breakthroughs, leadership decisions, or escalation during joint exercises in the remaining resolution window.