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Economy·Chiudi

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

icon for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Economy·Chiudi

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

mag 31

mag 31

$478,990 Vol.

31 mag 2026
Polymarket

$478,990 Vol.

Polymarket

20+

$111,859 Vol.

47%

40+

$118,158 Vol.

14%

60+

$67,055 Vol.

6%

80+

$181,918 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to constrain vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Daily transits have remained well below the pre-conflict average of 130–140 ships, with recent data showing only single-digit to low-double-digit passages amid Iranian permit requirements, tolls, and designated routing. US efforts under Project Freedom facilitated 10 transits on May 4 before pausing for negotiations, while limited tanker movements—often via Iranian-approved paths or with transponders disabled—have occurred in the subsequent weeks. Traders are monitoring ceasefire progress, mine-clearance timelines, and any escalation that could further disrupt energy flows, with resolution by May 31 now just days away.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$478,990
Data di fine
31 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to constrain vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Daily transits have remained well below the pre-conflict average of 130–140 ships, with recent data showing only single-digit to low-double-digit passages amid Iranian permit requirements, tolls, and designated routing. US efforts under Project Freedom facilitated 10 transits on May 4 before pausing for negotiations, while limited tanker movements—often via Iranian-approved paths or with transponders disabled—have occurred in the subsequent weeks. Traders are monitoring ceasefire progress, mine-clearance timelines, and any escalation that could further disrupt energy flows, with resolution by May 31 now just days away.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$478,990
Data di fine
31 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Domande frequenti

"Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "20+" a 47%, seguito da "40+" a 14%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 47¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 47% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?" ha generato $479K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 29, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?" è "20+" a 47%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 47% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "40+" a 14%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.