Iranian leaders’ May 11 assertion of control through proposed ceasefire terms—demanding sanctions relief, asset releases, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—underpins trader consensus that the Islamic Republic faces high barriers to collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination and subsequent U.S.-Israel strikes, a three-member interim council and Supreme National Security Council have maintained institutional continuity without reported defections in the IRGC or security apparatus. Earlier 2025–2026 protests over economic grievances were contained through mass arrests and pro-regime measures, while Russia has supported military rebuilding amid the fragile ceasefire. These developments reflect the regime’s demonstrated capacity for asymmetric resilience and internal cohesion, even after leadership losses and external pressure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$17,909,815 Vol.
$17,909,815 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$17,909,815 Vol.
$17,909,815 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian leaders’ May 11 assertion of control through proposed ceasefire terms—demanding sanctions relief, asset releases, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—underpins trader consensus that the Islamic Republic faces high barriers to collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination and subsequent U.S.-Israel strikes, a three-member interim council and Supreme National Security Council have maintained institutional continuity without reported defections in the IRGC or security apparatus. Earlier 2025–2026 protests over economic grievances were contained through mass arrests and pro-regime measures, while Russia has supported military rebuilding amid the fragile ceasefire. These developments reflect the regime’s demonstrated capacity for asymmetric resilience and internal cohesion, even after leadership losses and external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$17,909,815Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian leaders’ May 11 assertion of control through proposed ceasefire terms—demanding sanctions relief, asset releases, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—underpins trader consensus that the Islamic Republic faces high barriers to collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination and subsequent U.S.-Israel strikes, a three-member interim council and Supreme National Security Council have maintained institutional continuity without reported defections in the IRGC or security apparatus. Earlier 2025–2026 protests over economic grievances were contained through mass arrests and pro-regime measures, while Russia has supported military rebuilding amid the fragile ceasefire. These developments reflect the regime’s demonstrated capacity for asymmetric resilience and internal cohesion, even after leadership losses and external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,909,815Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian leaders’ May 11 assertion of control through proposed ceasefire terms—demanding sanctions relief, asset releases, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—underpins trader consensus that the Islamic Republic faces high barriers to collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination and subsequent U.S.-Israel strikes, a three-member interim council and Supreme National Security Council have maintained institutional continuity without reported defections in the IRGC or security apparatus. Earlier 2025–2026 protests over economic grievances were contained through mass arrests and pro-regime measures, while Russia has supported military rebuilding amid the fragile ceasefire. These developments reflect the regime’s demonstrated capacity for asymmetric resilience and internal cohesion, even after leadership losses and external pressure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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