Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren’s established position in California’s 18th congressional district anchors the market’s 96% consensus for a Democratic winner ahead of the November 3 general election. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed her advancement with 54.9% of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis at 29.3%, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders price in Lofgren’s long tenure, local voter registration advantages, and fundraising edge as durable barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by factors such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or national political realignment exceeding historical norms for this seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$39,788 Vol.
$39,788 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$39,788 Vol.
$39,788 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$20,583 Vol.
96%
共和党
$19,206 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren’s established position in California’s 18th congressional district anchors the market’s 96% consensus for a Democratic winner ahead of the November 3 general election. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed her advancement with 54.9% of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis at 29.3%, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders price in Lofgren’s long tenure, local voter registration advantages, and fundraising edge as durable barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by factors such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or national political realignment exceeding historical norms for this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$39,788終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren’s established position in California’s 18th congressional district anchors the market’s 96% consensus for a Democratic winner ahead of the November 3 general election. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed her advancement with 54.9% of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis at 29.3%, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders price in Lofgren’s long tenure, local voter registration advantages, and fundraising edge as durable barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by factors such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or national political realignment exceeding historical norms for this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$39,788終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren’s established position in California’s 18th congressional district anchors the market’s 96% consensus for a Democratic winner ahead of the November 3 general election. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed her advancement with 54.9% of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis at 29.3%, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders price in Lofgren’s long tenure, local voter registration advantages, and fundraising edge as durable barriers. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing driven by factors such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or national political realignment exceeding historical norms for this seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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