California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted boundaries to favor the party in Los Angeles County areas. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas, with Solis securing nearly half the vote and establishing a dominant position. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Trader pricing at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the GOP. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$61,233 Vol.
$61,233 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
2%
$61,233 Vol.
$61,233 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$30,324 Vol.
94%
共和党
$30,909 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted boundaries to favor the party in Los Angeles County areas. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas, with Solis securing nearly half the vote and establishing a dominant position. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Trader pricing at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the GOP. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$61,233終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted boundaries to favor the party in Los Angeles County areas. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas, with Solis securing nearly half the vote and establishing a dominant position. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Trader pricing at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the GOP. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$61,233終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted boundaries to favor the party in Los Angeles County areas. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas, with Solis securing nearly half the vote and establishing a dominant position. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. Trader pricing at 93.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the GOP. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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