Recent numerical weather prediction models, including those from global ensembles and the Israel Meteorological Service, indicate a peak temperature of 31–32°C in Tel Aviv on August 31 under mostly clear skies and light westerly flow following minor coastal drizzle on the 30th. This aligns with late-August climatology near 30–32°C and explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 32°C at 61.5% implied probability. Stable high pressure and limited cloud cover reduce upside potential for 33°C or higher while making 30°C or below unlikely absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns. Updated model runs and the final official forecast before resolution will provide the next key data points for traders.