Latest forecast consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and World Weather Information Service points to a daily maximum of 36–38°C in Warsaw on August 5, driven by clear skies, strong solar insolation, and warm southerly advection ahead of a high-pressure ridge. This setup favors peak readings near 37°C during afternoon hours, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 43% for 37°C and 30.5% for 38°C. Model guidance shows limited spread due to minimal cloud cover and stable boundary-layer conditions, though slight variations in wind direction or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on these narrow outcomes ahead of final observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月5日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
37°C 44%
38°C 31%
36°C 20%
39°C 4%
$41,749 Vol.
$41,749 Vol.
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
20%
37°C
44%
38°C
31%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 44%
38°C 31%
36°C 20%
39°C 4%
$41,749 Vol.
$41,749 Vol.
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
20%
37°C
44%
38°C
31%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest forecast consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and World Weather Information Service points to a daily maximum of 36–38°C in Warsaw on August 5, driven by clear skies, strong solar insolation, and warm southerly advection ahead of a high-pressure ridge. This setup favors peak readings near 37°C during afternoon hours, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 43% for 37°C and 30.5% for 38°C. Model guidance shows limited spread due to minimal cloud cover and stable boundary-layer conditions, though slight variations in wind direction or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on these narrow outcomes ahead of final observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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