Recent polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) locked in a tight contest for Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, with both candidates frequently within the margin of error across Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys released in the final days before the October 4 vote. Strategic voting patterns among left-leaning voters, who often rank Arraes first and Costa second, contribute to Costa’s stronger positioning in the market for second place. Mendonça Filho (PL) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) trail in third and fourth, limiting their prospects for the runner-up spot. The race’s narrow spreads and combined first-plus-second-choice methodology keep the implied probability for second place competitive but tilted toward the petista senator.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日View resolved













外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問