Recent U.S. goods trade data released July 28 showed the June deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from May’s $105.9 billion peak, as goods imports fell 2.6% to $306.2 billion and exports declined 1.8% to $204.7 billion. This moderation, amid broader import pullback across consumer goods, capital equipment, and industrial supplies, supports trader expectations that the full goods-and-services balance will settle in the $70–80 billion range once the August 4 BEA release incorporates the typical $28–30 billion services surplus. Persistent tariff effects and elevated prior-month readings have anchored the 75.5% implied probability on that bucket, while the 16% chance of a 60–70 billion outcome reflects uncertainty around final seasonal adjustments and any late revisions to May’s $77.6 billion total.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日70-80B 77%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 5%
90-100B 4.5%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
<50B
<1%
50-60B
5%
60-70B
16%
70-80B
77%
80-90B
5%
90-100B
5%
100B+
1%
70-80B 77%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 5%
90-100B 4.5%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
<50B
$397 Vol.
<1%
50-60B
$293 Vol.
5%
60-70B
$454 Vol.
16%
70-80B
$6,247 Vol.
77%
80-90B
$246 Vol.
5%
90-100B
$246 Vol.
5%
100B+
$357 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent U.S. goods trade data released July 28 showed the June deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from May’s $105.9 billion peak, as goods imports fell 2.6% to $306.2 billion and exports declined 1.8% to $204.7 billion. This moderation, amid broader import pullback across consumer goods, capital equipment, and industrial supplies, supports trader expectations that the full goods-and-services balance will settle in the $70–80 billion range once the August 4 BEA release incorporates the typical $28–30 billion services surplus. Persistent tariff effects and elevated prior-month readings have anchored the 75.5% implied probability on that bucket, while the 16% chance of a 60–70 billion outcome reflects uncertainty around final seasonal adjustments and any late revisions to May’s $77.6 billion total.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
音量
$8,239終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent U.S. goods trade data released July 28 showed the June deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from May’s $105.9 billion peak, as goods imports fell 2.6% to $306.2 billion and exports declined 1.8% to $204.7 billion. This moderation, amid broader import pullback across consumer goods, capital equipment, and industrial supplies, supports trader expectations that the full goods-and-services balance will settle in the $70–80 billion range once the August 4 BEA release incorporates the typical $28–30 billion services surplus. Persistent tariff effects and elevated prior-month readings have anchored the 75.5% implied probability on that bucket, while the 16% chance of a 60–70 billion outcome reflects uncertainty around final seasonal adjustments and any late revisions to May’s $77.6 billion total.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
音量
$8,239終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. goods trade data released July 28 showed the June deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from May’s $105.9 billion peak, as goods imports fell 2.6% to $306.2 billion and exports declined 1.8% to $204.7 billion. This moderation, amid broader import pullback across consumer goods, capital equipment, and industrial supplies, supports trader expectations that the full goods-and-services balance will settle in the $70–80 billion range once the August 4 BEA release incorporates the typical $28–30 billion services surplus. Persistent tariff effects and elevated prior-month readings have anchored the 75.5% implied probability on that bucket, while the 16% chance of a 60–70 billion outcome reflects uncertainty around final seasonal adjustments and any late revisions to May’s $77.6 billion total.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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