Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alps has lifted Rhine gauges from mid-August record lows, including Kaub readings near 5–10 cm that halted full-load barge traffic, prompting the market’s heavy weighting toward recovery before September 1. Levels remain well below navigation benchmarks for unrestricted shipping, with Kaub still around 69 cm and flow percentiles in the lowest decile versus thirty-year records. Experts note that sustained precipitation is required for full normalization, and current forecasts plus seasonal patterns point to only gradual further gains through early September. High September disruption probabilities in hydrological models reflect the limited window for complete rebound before autumn flows typically decline, keeping later-month and October outcomes as lower-probability tails.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月1日までに 67.5%
2026年9月1日～14日 18%
2026年9月15日〜30日 11.2%
2026年10月1日〜31日 6.4%
$95,719 Vol.
$95,719 Vol.
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日までに
67%
2026年9月1日～14日
18%
2026年9月15日〜30日
11%
2026年10月1日〜31日
6%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
1%
2026年9月1日までに 67.5%
2026年9月1日～14日 18%
2026年9月15日〜30日 11.2%
2026年10月1日〜31日 6.4%
$95,719 Vol.
$95,719 Vol.
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日までに
$26,350 Vol.
67%
2026年9月1日～14日
$24,511 Vol.
18%
2026年9月15日〜30日
$13,671 Vol.
11%
2026年10月1日〜31日
$16,567 Vol.
6%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
$14,644 Vol.
1%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alps has lifted Rhine gauges from mid-August record lows, including Kaub readings near 5–10 cm that halted full-load barge traffic, prompting the market’s heavy weighting toward recovery before September 1. Levels remain well below navigation benchmarks for unrestricted shipping, with Kaub still around 69 cm and flow percentiles in the lowest decile versus thirty-year records. Experts note that sustained precipitation is required for full normalization, and current forecasts plus seasonal patterns point to only gradual further gains through early September. High September disruption probabilities in hydrological models reflect the limited window for complete rebound before autumn flows typically decline, keeping later-month and October outcomes as lower-probability tails.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$95,719終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alps has lifted Rhine gauges from mid-August record lows, including Kaub readings near 5–10 cm that halted full-load barge traffic, prompting the market’s heavy weighting toward recovery before September 1. Levels remain well below navigation benchmarks for unrestricted shipping, with Kaub still around 69 cm and flow percentiles in the lowest decile versus thirty-year records. Experts note that sustained precipitation is required for full normalization, and current forecasts plus seasonal patterns point to only gradual further gains through early September. High September disruption probabilities in hydrological models reflect the limited window for complete rebound before autumn flows typically decline, keeping later-month and October outcomes as lower-probability tails.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$95,719終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRecent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alps has lifted Rhine gauges from mid-August record lows, including Kaub readings near 5–10 cm that halted full-load barge traffic, prompting the market’s heavy weighting toward recovery before September 1. Levels remain well below navigation benchmarks for unrestricted shipping, with Kaub still around 69 cm and flow percentiles in the lowest decile versus thirty-year records. Experts note that sustained precipitation is required for full normalization, and current forecasts plus seasonal patterns point to only gradual further gains through early September. High September disruption probabilities in hydrological models reflect the limited window for complete rebound before autumn flows typically decline, keeping later-month and October outcomes as lower-probability tails.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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