David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日クロウリー <1％ 98.3%
クロウリー 1～2％ <1%
クロウリー 2～3％ <1%
クラウリー 3～4% <1%
$106,437 Vol.
$106,437 Vol.
2026/08/31
ホン 6％以上
<1%
ホン 5〜6%
<1%
ホン 4～5％
<1%
ホン 3〜4％
<1%
ホン 2～3％
<1%
ホン 1～2％
<1%
ホン <1％
<1%
クロウリー <1％
98%
クロウリー 1～2％
<1%
クロウリー 2～3％
<1%
クラウリー 3～4%
<1%
クロウリー 4〜5％
<1%
クロウリー 5〜6%
<1%
クロウリー 6%以上
<1%
クロウリー <1％ 98.3%
クロウリー 1～2％ <1%
クロウリー 2～3％ <1%
クラウリー 3～4% <1%
$106,437 Vol.
$106,437 Vol.
2026/08/31
ホン 6％以上
$13,198 Vol.
<1%
ホン 5〜6%
$3,714 Vol.
<1%
ホン 4～5％
$3,377 Vol.
<1%
ホン 3〜4％
$11,011 Vol.
<1%
ホン 2～3％
$2,738 Vol.
<1%
ホン 1～2％
$8,472 Vol.
<1%
ホン <1％
$4,537 Vol.
<1%
クロウリー <1％
$18,976 Vol.
98%
クロウリー 1～2％
$11,795 Vol.
<1%
クロウリー 2～3％
$9,905 Vol.
<1%
クラウリー 3～4%
$9,013 Vol.
<1%
クロウリー 4〜5％
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
クロウリー 5〜6%
$3,312 Vol.
<1%
クロウリー 6%以上
$4,102 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
音量
$106,437終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$106,437終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a margin of under 0.5 percentage points, defeating Francesca Hong after late shifts in voter turnout and endorsements from party establishment figures including Gov. Tony Evers. Official results placed Crowley at approximately 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, with the Associated Press calling the race following Hong's concession that eliminated recount risks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a sub-1% Crowley victory because the certified tally aligns with that bracket, though final canvassing and any procedural challenges before certification could still alter the precise recorded margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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