California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,046 거래량
$22,046 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
92%
공화당
6%
$22,046 거래량
$22,046 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,173 거래량
92%
공화당
$7,873 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$22,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,046종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's redrawn First Congressional District, shaped by 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, now favors Democratic candidates with an estimated partisan lean of roughly twelve points toward Kamala Harris's 2024 performance. This structural shift underpins the 91.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic win in the November 2026 general election, as the new boundaries incorporate additional Democratic-leaning areas previously outside the district. Recent polling in the June top-two primary shows Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire holding a narrow lead over Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, with Democratic fundraising also ahead. A split Democratic field or unusually high Republican turnout could advance two Republicans to November and alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similar California districts make that path narrow.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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