The commanding 92.5% trader consensus for the Democratic Party in California's 14th Congressional District special election stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 36 points in 2024 amid heavy Democratic voter registration—and a crowded primary field dominated by experienced Democrats like state Sen. Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh, who lead parallel Polymarket candidate odds at 88% and 9%. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation over sexual misconduct allegations triggered the June 16 top-two primary and August 18 general, but fragmented Republican challengers (Wendy Huang, Dena Maldonado, Tom Wong, Jack Wu) face steep barriers in this East Bay seat. Realistic shifts would require a GOP surprise in the primary via low Democratic turnout or a major frontrunner scandal before ballots drop.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,004 거래량
$25,004 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$25,004 거래량
$25,004 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,920 거래량
93%
공화당
$17,084 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The commanding 92.5% trader consensus for the Democratic Party in California's 14th Congressional District special election stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 36 points in 2024 amid heavy Democratic voter registration—and a crowded primary field dominated by experienced Democrats like state Sen. Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh, who lead parallel Polymarket candidate odds at 88% and 9%. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation over sexual misconduct allegations triggered the June 16 top-two primary and August 18 general, but fragmented Republican challengers (Wendy Huang, Dena Maldonado, Tom Wong, Jack Wu) face steep barriers in this East Bay seat. Realistic shifts would require a GOP surprise in the primary via low Democratic turnout or a major frontrunner scandal before ballots drop.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$25,004종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The commanding 92.5% trader consensus for the Democratic Party in California's 14th Congressional District special election stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 36 points in 2024 amid heavy Democratic voter registration—and a crowded primary field dominated by experienced Democrats like state Sen. Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh, who lead parallel Polymarket candidate odds at 88% and 9%. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation over sexual misconduct allegations triggered the June 16 top-two primary and August 18 general, but fragmented Republican challengers (Wendy Huang, Dena Maldonado, Tom Wong, Jack Wu) face steep barriers in this East Bay seat. Realistic shifts would require a GOP surprise in the primary via low Democratic turnout or a major frontrunner scandal before ballots drop.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,004종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The commanding 92.5% trader consensus for the Democratic Party in California's 14th Congressional District special election stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Kamala Harris won by 36 points in 2024 amid heavy Democratic voter registration—and a crowded primary field dominated by experienced Democrats like state Sen. Aisha Wahab and attorney Rakhi Israni Singh, who lead parallel Polymarket candidate odds at 88% and 9%. Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation over sexual misconduct allegations triggered the June 16 top-two primary and August 18 general, but fragmented Republican challengers (Wendy Huang, Dena Maldonado, Tom Wong, Jack Wu) face steep barriers in this East Bay seat. Realistic shifts would require a GOP surprise in the primary via low Democratic turnout or a major frontrunner scandal before ballots drop.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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