New York’s 17th congressional district remains a competitive Hudson Valley seat held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, with the June 23 Democratic primary now shaping the general election matchup. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, are contesting the nomination amid strong fundraising and polling in the primary race. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 64.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in November, reflecting midterm patterns where the opposition party typically gains ground in such battleground districts. The Republican Party sits at 38%, consistent with Lawler’s established name recognition and the district’s narrow partisan balance. Upcoming primary results and national political conditions through the fall campaign will likely determine whether these probabilities shift ahead of Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
64%
Republican Party
36%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$257 거래량
64%
Republican Party
$47 거래량
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 17th congressional district remains a competitive Hudson Valley seat held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, with the June 23 Democratic primary now shaping the general election matchup. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, are contesting the nomination amid strong fundraising and polling in the primary race. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 64.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in November, reflecting midterm patterns where the opposition party typically gains ground in such battleground districts. The Republican Party sits at 38%, consistent with Lawler’s established name recognition and the district’s narrow partisan balance. Upcoming primary results and national political conditions through the fall campaign will likely determine whether these probabilities shift ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$303종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 17th congressional district remains a competitive Hudson Valley seat held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, with the June 23 Democratic primary now shaping the general election matchup. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, are contesting the nomination amid strong fundraising and polling in the primary race. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 64.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in November, reflecting midterm patterns where the opposition party typically gains ground in such battleground districts. The Republican Party sits at 38%, consistent with Lawler’s established name recognition and the district’s narrow partisan balance. Upcoming primary results and national political conditions through the fall campaign will likely determine whether these probabilities shift ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$303종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 17th congressional district remains a competitive Hudson Valley seat held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, with the June 23 Democratic primary now shaping the general election matchup. Multiple Democratic candidates, including Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, are contesting the nomination amid strong fundraising and polling in the primary race. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 64.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in November, reflecting midterm patterns where the opposition party typically gains ground in such battleground districts. The Republican Party sits at 38%, consistent with Lawler’s established name recognition and the district’s narrow partisan balance. Upcoming primary results and national political conditions through the fall campaign will likely determine whether these probabilities shift ahead of Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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