Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 18°C (24.5%) and 19°C (23%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 18, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster overnight lows around 17-20°C amid a mild warming trend. Recent nights saw minima near 16-17°C under clearer skies, but anticipated southerly winds (10-14 mph) and high cloud cover on May 18 are expected to limit radiative cooling after daytime highs of 26-28°C, potentially preserving shallower inversion layers. AccuWeather guidance points to 20°C, but JMA climatology for mid-May (average 16-18°C) and model spread differentiate the leaders. Watch JMA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 18일 도쿄에서 기온이 가장 낮으신가요?
5월 18일 도쿄에서 기온이 가장 낮으신가요?
18°C 29%
19°C 22%
17°C 17%
16°C 8%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
13°C 이하
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
8%
17°C
17%
18°C
29%
19°C
22%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C 이상
1%
18°C 29%
19°C 22%
17°C 17%
16°C 8%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
13°C 이하
$33 거래량
1%
14°C
$117 거래량
1%
15°C
$8 거래량
5%
16°C
$6 거래량
8%
17°C
$0 거래량
17%
18°C
$0 거래량
29%
19°C
$0 거래량
22%
20°C
$5 거래량
5%
21°C
$5 거래량
5%
22°C
$63 거래량
1%
23°C 이상
$88 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 18°C (24.5%) and 19°C (23%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 18, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster overnight lows around 17-20°C amid a mild warming trend. Recent nights saw minima near 16-17°C under clearer skies, but anticipated southerly winds (10-14 mph) and high cloud cover on May 18 are expected to limit radiative cooling after daytime highs of 26-28°C, potentially preserving shallower inversion layers. AccuWeather guidance points to 20°C, but JMA climatology for mid-May (average 16-18°C) and model spread differentiate the leaders. Watch JMA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$324종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 18°C (24.5%) and 19°C (23%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 18, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster overnight lows around 17-20°C amid a mild warming trend. Recent nights saw minima near 16-17°C under clearer skies, but anticipated southerly winds (10-14 mph) and high cloud cover on May 18 are expected to limit radiative cooling after daytime highs of 26-28°C, potentially preserving shallower inversion layers. AccuWeather guidance points to 20°C, but JMA climatology for mid-May (average 16-18°C) and model spread differentiate the leaders. Watch JMA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$324종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 18°C (24.5%) and 19°C (23%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 18, reflecting genuine uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster overnight lows around 17-20°C amid a mild warming trend. Recent nights saw minima near 16-17°C under clearer skies, but anticipated southerly winds (10-14 mph) and high cloud cover on May 18 are expected to limit radiative cooling after daytime highs of 26-28°C, potentially preserving shallower inversion layers. AccuWeather guidance points to 20°C, but JMA climatology for mid-May (average 16-18°C) and model spread differentiate the leaders. Watch JMA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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