Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic partisan voting index and Boyle's consistent landslide margins—71% in 2024, 76% in 2022—against underfunded Republican challengers. With no competitive polling and May 19 primaries poised to confirm Boyle (unopposed effectively) versus Jessica Arriaga (sole GOP contender), recent ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underpin the lopsided odds. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Boyle, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though safe seats rarely flip absent such catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,015 거래량
$22,015 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
5%
$22,015 거래량
$22,015 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$4,954 거래량
94%
공화당
$17,061 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic partisan voting index and Boyle's consistent landslide margins—71% in 2024, 76% in 2022—against underfunded Republican challengers. With no competitive polling and May 19 primaries poised to confirm Boyle (unopposed effectively) versus Jessica Arriaga (sole GOP contender), recent ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underpin the lopsided odds. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Boyle, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though safe seats rarely flip absent such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$22,015종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic partisan voting index and Boyle's consistent landslide margins—71% in 2024, 76% in 2022—against underfunded Republican challengers. With no competitive polling and May 19 primaries poised to confirm Boyle (unopposed effectively) versus Jessica Arriaga (sole GOP contender), recent ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underpin the lopsided odds. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Boyle, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though safe seats rarely flip absent such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,015종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Democratic partisan voting index and Boyle's consistent landslide margins—71% in 2024, 76% in 2022—against underfunded Republican challengers. With no competitive polling and May 19 primaries poised to confirm Boyle (unopposed effectively) versus Jessica Arriaga (sole GOP contender), recent ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underpin the lopsided odds. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, health event affecting Boyle, or a massive national Republican midterm wave, though safe seats rarely flip absent such catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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