Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party winning California's 24th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Salud Carbajal's commanding position in a solidly Democratic district with a D+13 Cook partisan voting index and history of 20-plus-point general election victories, including 62.7% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary pits Carbajal against Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom Party's Helena Pasquarella, and Republican Bob Smith, likely advancing Carbajal to an uncompetitive November 3 general amid forecasters' Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato. Absent late-breaking scandals, health events, legal challenges, or an unprecedented national Republican midterm wave, the outcome faces significant structural barriers to reversal.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,816 거래량
$17,816 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,816 거래량
$17,816 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$9,935 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$7,881 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party winning California's 24th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Salud Carbajal's commanding position in a solidly Democratic district with a D+13 Cook partisan voting index and history of 20-plus-point general election victories, including 62.7% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary pits Carbajal against Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom Party's Helena Pasquarella, and Republican Bob Smith, likely advancing Carbajal to an uncompetitive November 3 general amid forecasters' Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato. Absent late-breaking scandals, health events, legal challenges, or an unprecedented national Republican midterm wave, the outcome faces significant structural barriers to reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$17,816종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party winning California's 24th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Salud Carbajal's commanding position in a solidly Democratic district with a D+13 Cook partisan voting index and history of 20-plus-point general election victories, including 62.7% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary pits Carbajal against Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom Party's Helena Pasquarella, and Republican Bob Smith, likely advancing Carbajal to an uncompetitive November 3 general amid forecasters' Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato. Absent late-breaking scandals, health events, legal challenges, or an unprecedented national Republican midterm wave, the outcome faces significant structural barriers to reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$17,816종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party winning California's 24th Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Salud Carbajal's commanding position in a solidly Democratic district with a D+13 Cook partisan voting index and history of 20-plus-point general election victories, including 62.7% in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary pits Carbajal against Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom Party's Helena Pasquarella, and Republican Bob Smith, likely advancing Carbajal to an uncompetitive November 3 general amid forecasters' Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato. Absent late-breaking scandals, health events, legal challenges, or an unprecedented national Republican midterm wave, the outcome faces significant structural barriers to reversal.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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