Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트CA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$19,621 거래량
$19,621 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,621 거래량
$19,621 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$11,733 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$7,888 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$19,621종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$19,621종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 24th congressional district with roughly 54% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith. The Central Coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has consistently favored Democrats in recent cycles, as evidenced by Carbajal's 62.7% general election margin in 2024. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, the district's underlying partisan composition, and the absence of major competitive developments since the primary. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout patterns, late-cycle national headwinds for Democrats, or unforeseen candidate-specific events capable of overcoming the structural advantages held by the sitting member.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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