Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 that included a large-scale prisoner exchange, yet Russian officials immediately described a comprehensive settlement as distant and complex. Core disputes over Ukrainian territorial concessions, long-term security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian military capabilities remain unresolved, with both sides trading accusations of violations during the brief truce. Putin signaled openness to eventual direct talks only after a full treaty, while Ukrainian positions continue to reject major territorial compromises. These entrenched differences, coupled with stalled negotiations and no breakthrough on verification mechanisms, sustain trader consensus that a signed peace agreement by the June deadline is unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$439,585 거래량
$439,585 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$439,585 거래량
$439,585 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 that included a large-scale prisoner exchange, yet Russian officials immediately described a comprehensive settlement as distant and complex. Core disputes over Ukrainian territorial concessions, long-term security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian military capabilities remain unresolved, with both sides trading accusations of violations during the brief truce. Putin signaled openness to eventual direct talks only after a full treaty, while Ukrainian positions continue to reject major territorial compromises. These entrenched differences, coupled with stalled negotiations and no breakthrough on verification mechanisms, sustain trader consensus that a signed peace agreement by the June deadline is unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
거래량
$439,585종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 that included a large-scale prisoner exchange, yet Russian officials immediately described a comprehensive settlement as distant and complex. Core disputes over Ukrainian territorial concessions, long-term security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian military capabilities remain unresolved, with both sides trading accusations of violations during the brief truce. Putin signaled openness to eventual direct talks only after a full treaty, while Ukrainian positions continue to reject major territorial compromises. These entrenched differences, coupled with stalled negotiations and no breakthrough on verification mechanisms, sustain trader consensus that a signed peace agreement by the June deadline is unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$439,585종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire in early May 2026 that included a large-scale prisoner exchange, yet Russian officials immediately described a comprehensive settlement as distant and complex. Core disputes over Ukrainian territorial concessions, long-term security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian military capabilities remain unresolved, with both sides trading accusations of violations during the brief truce. Putin signaled openness to eventual direct talks only after a full treaty, while Ukrainian positions continue to reject major territorial compromises. These entrenched differences, coupled with stalled negotiations and no breakthrough on verification mechanisms, sustain trader consensus that a signed peace agreement by the June deadline is unlikely.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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